THURSDAY 16 OCTOBER

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Thursday 16 October
Session 5 Prediction and Attribution of Extremes: From Climate to Weather
Session Description: The World Climate Research Programme has identified the science underpinning the prediction and attribution of extreme events as one of its six grand challenges. This session explores that challenge from several perspectives, including emerging capabilities to observe, monitor and predict extremes, the understanding of processes that contribute to their development and amplification, the ability of models to represent extreme events, and the prospects for attributing causes such as rising greenhouse gas concentrations to recent damaging, high impact, events.
Co-chairs:
Gabi Hegerl (University of Edinburgh) and Francis Zwiers (Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria)
Time Speaker Title

08:30

Introduction

Francis Zwiers (Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria)

The prediction and attribution of extremes. From Climate to weather

08:40 Sonia Seneviratne (ETH Zurich) Land surface drivers of climate extremes and climate change
09:10 Nikolaos Christidis (Met Office Hadley Centre) Human influence on recent changes in extremes and attribution of extreme events
09:30 Adam Sobel (Columbia University) Extreme cyclonic events, from tornadoes to tropical cyclones: are there any commonalities?
09:50 Fernando Prates (ECMWF) Predicting high impact severe weather at ECMWF
10:10 Coffee and Poster Viewing
10:40 Mxolisi Shongwe (South African Weather Service) A Demonstration of CORDEX-Africa’s Potential in Addressing Climate-Related Challenges and Information Needs
11:00 Nick Rayner (Met Office Hadley Centre) The science of producing a globally complete daily surface temperature product
11:20 Ad. Stoffelen (Koninklijk Nederlands Meterologisch Institut (KNMI)) Extreme scatterometer winds
11:40 Andrea Steiner (University of Graz Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change) Observing atmospheric variability, extreme events, and climate change from space with GPS radio occultation
12:00 Tim Woollings (University of Oxford) Can Arctic warming influence blocking and mid-latitude extremes?
12:20 Lunch and poster viewing
 
Organised by:
WCRP EUMETSAT
With the support of:
European Commission ESA
In cooperation with:
City Darmstadt
Other Sponsors: